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Euro 2024 is heating up, and as we approach the final group-stage matches, the competition is more intense than ever. Here’s an in-depth look at the prospects of four teams: Scotland, Romania, Georgia, and Albania.
1. Scotland (Group A)
Scotland’s recent history in international tournaments has been a mixed bag. At Euro 2020, they played two of their three games at Glasgow’s Hampden Park but lost to both Croatia and the Czech Republic, finishing last in their group. They also failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. However, they turned heads with a stunning 2-0 victory over Spain in their second qualifying match for Euro 2024, thanks to a Scott McTominay brace. Wins against Georgia and Norway followed, although their recent performances have been less impressive, dropping points against Georgia and Norway in subsequent matches and losing to the Netherlands and Northern Ireland in friendlies.
The strength of the Scottish team lies in its midfield, with Scott McTominay playing a pivotal role. McTominay, often referred to as a “false midfielder,” led Scotland in goal scoring during the qualifying period, frequently appearing in the penalty area at the right moments. Alongside Premier League players John McGinn, Ryan Christie, and Billy Gilmour, Scotland has a robust midfield presence. However, their goal-scoring relies heavily on crosses from wide areas, with Liverpool’s Andrew Robertson playing a crucial role as an attacking left-back. The team struggles with reliable goal scorers, as Che Adams has been inconsistent, and target man Lyndon Dykes is sidelined due to injury.
Player to watch: Scott McTominay (Manchester United)
Bet: McTominay to lead Scotland in goals (+500)
2. Romania (Group E)
Romania finds itself in the weakest of the six groups, alongside Belgium, Slovakia, and Ukraine. Despite this, Romania’s solid performance during Euro qualifying has boosted their odds. They conceded just five goals in qualifying and topped their group, finishing ahead of Switzerland without losing a single match. However, the underlying numbers suggest a different story, as they conceded 1.23 xG per match, indicating they should have conceded more goals. Romania will likely have minimal possession during the tournament, relying on solid defensive organization and quick-strike transitions.
The attack depends heavily on George Puscas, who spent the season on loan in Italy’s second division. Defensively, the team is energetic and excels at cutting down passing lanes and aerial duels, thanks to emerging defender Radu Dragusin. Dragusin, used as an extra defender by Spurs, is particularly strong in the air.
Player to watch: Radu Dragusin (Tottenham Hotspur)
Bet: Romania to finish bottom of Group E (+200) and fail to qualify (+110)
3. Georgia (Group F)
Georgia claimed the 24th and final spot in Euro 2024 with a penalty shoot-out victory against Greece in March, marking their first appearance in a major international tournament. Their performance in the third tier of the Nations League earned them this opportunity. Despite finishing fourth in their Euro qualifying group with the worst underlying xG difference (minus-0.75 xGD per match), wins against Luxembourg and Greece in the play-off secured their place. Georgia faces a significant talent deficit compared to most of the field, with only three players in Europe’s top five domestic leagues.
Valencia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili will anchor the defense, while Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, known as “Kvaradona,” will lead the attack with his exceptional dribbling skills. Any positive result or goal in this tournament would be historic for Georgia.
Player to watch: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Napoli)
4. Albania (Group B)
Albania is in one of the most challenging groups, facing Spain, Italy, and Croatia. To advance as a potential third-place team, they will need to pull off a significant upset. They qualified for Euro 2024 by winning their group, which included the Czech Republic, Poland, the Faroe Islands, and Moldova. However, Albania had a negative expected goal differential in qualifying.
This is Albania’s second major tournament appearance, the first being Euro 2016. The team employs a deep, defensive low block, having conceded only four goals in eight qualifying matches. Against possession-dominant sides like Spain, Italy, and Croatia, Albania will struggle to score, having netted just 12 goals in qualifying.
Player to watch: Armando Broja (Chelsea)
Bet: Albania under 1.5 goals scored (+110)
These four teams each have unique strengths and challenges as they navigate the group stages of Euro 2024. While some are more likely to progress than others, each will aim to make their mark on the tournament.